Most of life, Duke argues, is poker—not chess. And yet we habitually treat life like chess. We demand cause-and-effect clarity. We judge decisions solely by their outcomes (a logical fallacy she calls “resulting”). We tie our self-worth to results we only partially control.
Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke is a seminal book that reframes decision-making as a probabilistic "bet" rather than a search for certainty thinking in bets annie duke pdf